Topic: The Last Mile Matters: How Delivery Infrastructure Shapes Online Trade and Consumption Inequality

Date: March 13, 2026 (Friday)

Time: 14:30 - 16:00

Venue: T1-302-R1

Language: English

Abstract: To what extent do investments in delivery infrastructure drive the rise of online trade? Do they narrow or widen spatial inequality in consumption? Using city-level e-Commerce data from China spanning 2015 to 2019, we document a positive relationship between a city's online consumption share and the density of last-mile delivery stations. Guided by this empirical pattern, we develop a multi-city general equilibrium model in which consumers optimally choose between online and offline shopping channels. Crucially, online trade costs decline as the importing city's delivery infrastructure becomes denser. Calibrating our model to the observed 2015 equilibrium, we find that the observed delivery infrastructure accounts for over 80% of online trade volume and nearly 90% of its associated welfare gains. It also reduces spatial inequality by raising real income more in smaller cities. We show that reallocating delivery infrastructure uniformly across space would further reduce inequality but at the cost of lower aggregate welfare gains.

Biography: Dr. Jianpeng Deng received his Ph.D. in Economics from Pennsylvania State University. He is currently an Assistant Professor at the School of Business, Shanghai University of Finance and Economics. His research interests include international trade, economic growth, and economic geography. His work has appeared in journals such as Review of Economics and Statistics, Journal of International Money and Finance, China Economic Review,《经济学季刊》and 《世界经济》.